Risk Assessment and modeling


In addition the increasing understanding of the routes and conditions of initial cross-species transmission events and host adaptation is crucial for improved modeling, early prevention and risk-based surveillance of emerging zoonoses. Using data from the primary research studies, ANTIGONE will build four risk assessment models – three dealing with risk assessment models at the interspecies level and one dealing with cross-scale modeling at the intrahost level:

  • Risk assessment model bat-borne viruses to assess the risk of introduction and emergence of Nipah Virus (NiV) and other bat-borne pathogens into EU MSs/region via multiple import routes and potential animal reservoirs;
  • Risk assessment model tick-borne bacteria to assess the risk of introduction of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and Anaplasma phagocytophilum into human populations in EU MSs/region, based on environmental characteristics and predicted environmental changes.
  • Risk assessment model mycobacteria to assess the risk of introduction of Mycobacterium bovis into human populations in Spain via different multi-host/multi-pathogen reservoir communities
  • Cross-scale mathematical model of ordinary differential equations that combines elements of within-host pathogenesis and between-host transmission for influenza in humans, demonstrating that the location of infection along the respiratory tract of individual hosts influences the ability of the virus to spread at the population level.